The AIG Women’s Open Recap- Sophia Popov Shocks the World with All Time Upset

The gold standard of mythical stories, The Lord of the Rings, features a quest with insurmountable odds. As Frodo Baggins and Samwise Gamgee are facing the Nazgúl at the end of The Two Towers movie, Sam proclaims to Frodo that by rights, they shouldn't be there. He finishes his inspirational monologue that, "But I think, Mr. Frodo, I do understand. I know now. Folk in those stories had lots of chances of turning back, only they didn't. They kept going. Because they were holding on to something."

By all rights, Sophia Popov shouldn't have been here either. She faced equally insurmountable odds as the fellowship. Her rookie year, she discovered she had Lyme disease. She missed status on the LPGA Tour by one shot at Q-Series. She caddied for Anne van Dam at the Drive On Championship.

She took fate into her own hands by playing into the AIG Women's Open with a top 10 finish at the Marathon Classic.

With no reshuffling in 2020 due to COVID-19, the only way Popov could capitalize on her strong play to become an LPGA Tour member was a victory.

She controlled fate at the AIG Women's Open off of only one practice round after arriving Tuesday at Royal Troon. At 304th in the world coming into the week, Sophia Popov popped off at Royal Troon and became the first German woman to win a major championship.

The German survived the unchartered territory of brutal winds and rain over the opening two days at even par, and put her foot on the gas over the weekend to shoot 8 under on a major weekend.

Popov moved into the lead and never relinquished after a driver-driver-putt for eagle on the par 5 4th hole. Her plaque should be placed on the 4th hole. Over the week, the German went (-4) on the hole alone.

After the third round, Popov mentioned she felt it'd be the whole world if she won the tournament. Like Atlas, the whole world must have felt like it was on her shoulders as she stepped up to the first tee Sunday as the 54-hole leader, finding a bunker and settling for a bogey.

After the frist, Popov explained that, "I told my boyfriend (who caddied for her this week), I said, "That's all right. We're going to make bogeys out here. It's fine. But we have plenty of opportunities for birdies." And you know, the next hole, right away I hit it close."

At that time, with the leaderboards flashing on each tee, Popov had to have seen Park and Ueda charging. Ally McDonald was in at (-5) on the day. Even par alone likely wasn't going to do it.

Popov responded in kind with back to back birdies at the 2nd and 3rd to get to (-5). Jasmine Suwannapura emerged, a group in front of Popov and blitzed Royal Troon with four straight birdies from the 4th through 7th. Minjee Lee, her playing partner, birdied the 5th and 6th to be two shots behind the untested Popov.

The German answered with a birdie of her own on the 6th during Suwannapura's run to hold onto the lead by one. The front nine was the gettable side Sunday, with the wind making the back nine longer than usual.

Popov held serve during the start of the tougher side, carding eight consecutive pars from the 7th to the 14th. Suwannapura was (+2) over the same stretch of holes to give Popov a three-shot lead with four holes to go.

Popov's streak was in jeopardy with her most troubling position off the tee on the 15th when she found the left scruff.

Popov's confidence showed with a strong stroke to set up a 10-foot birdie look that she capitalized. Her complete command of her game was on display Sunday, as the Symetra Tour member backed it up with another birdie on the 16th with a 35-footer for a four-shot lead. She was able to climb up the final leg of her Mt. Doom stress-free, as she parred the 17th and bogeyed the 18th to become the first German to win a major in LPGA Tour history.

Lee finally answered Popov's charge with a birdie at 16 to get to (-4), but it was too little too late for the Australian. The five-time LPGA Tour winner is still searching for her first career major title.

The Thai native did not fade quietly into the Scottish sunset. She made back to back birdies on the 16th and 17th to get back to (-5) and finished in solo 2nd place for the best major finish of her career. Inbee Park was the only other player in the field to finish under par, after shooting 77 Thursday.

Popov is now an LPGA Tour member and will be first able to participate as a member at the Cambia Portland Classic. Like Hinako Shibuno after she won this major last year, she has the choice to accept two years of membership instead of five because she won as a non-LPGA Tour member.

"I guess it is an incredible story and I think just personally for me, I think that's why I broke down on the 18th hole because it's been something I couldn't have dreamed of just a week ago, and it's incredible that golf allows for these things to happen," Popov explained.

Popov kept playing after nearly quitting a year ago, following Gamgee's rule. The people that make it in incredible stories keep going when by all rights, they had the opportunity to give up long ago.

Bets Of The Week Analysis

Top 10

1) Sophia Popov (-7) (+8000)

2) Jasmine Suwannapura (-5) (+17500)

3) Minjee Lee (-3) (+1000)

4) Inbee Park (-1) (+2000)

5) Austin Ernst (E) (+11000)

6) Momoko Ueda (+1) (+30000)

T7) Andrea Lee (+2) (+16000)

T7) In Gee Chun (+2) (+12500)

T7) Jennifer Song (+2) (+11000)

T7) Caroline Masson (+2) (+5000)

Picks:

Inbee Park at 7.5 units (+2000)- 4

Nasa Hataoka at 7.5 units (+2200)- T64

Hannah Green at 5 units (+4000)- T32

Anne van Dam at 2.5 units (+7000)- T44

InGee Chun at 2.5 units (+12500)- T7

Total Units Won: 82.5

Total Units Bet: 100

ROI on season: -17.5%

Market Inefficiencies Identified- Past Major Champion, Playing Well Coming into the Week

This week is a fantastic example of the player who won the tournament having bad odds. Popov won at (+8000), coming off a top 10 at the Marathon Classic and a 2nd place finish on the Symetra Tour before flying in Tuesday. She won on the Cactus Tour three separate times during the downtime.

But, at (+8000), she was the 36th most likely player to win the tournament this week. Notables viewed as less likely to win who have previous wins on the LPGA Tour and top 10s before the major were Cheyenne Knight (+12500) and In Gee Chun (+12500). Two-time winner Suwannapurra (+17500), two-time major champion Anna Nordqvist (+11000) were also less likely to win by the odds. Coming into the week, I don't think Popov was the 36th most likely to win. It was a greater upset than that.

This was the first week all five picks made the cut, and with two top 10s, that's fairly ideal for an opportunity to win. This was arguably the best week so far in picks, despite the victory in week 1. Next up, the tour comes back to the states in Arkansas.