Bets of the Week: Walmart NW Arkansas Championship

The Course

It's the 13th running of the Walmart NWA Championship, with Pinnacle Country Club hosting all thirteen years at the 54-hole event. The defending champion, Sung Hyun Park, is not in the field this week due to remaining in South Korea over COVID-19 pandemic concerns.

It's the fifth consecutive week the LPGA Tour has played, and the last one before a week off. Let's make some Walmart rollback quality picks! Remember those 13 cent discounts they advertised on TV? The smiley face darting around? Classic.

The Gimmes

Making the Cut the Week Before, Playing Well at the Course

These both apply week over week. 88% of winners made the cut in their previous start. And courses fit players' eyes like an old sweater. If a player has performed well there before and is playing well, the odds are pretty good a player will execute there again.

Market Inefficiencies

Not picking a player who's played five weeks in a row: Since 2010, the number of winners who have played four consecutive weeks culminating with a victory is seven percent. The LPGA Tour, forced to a truncated schedule due to COVID-19, is jamming five weeks in a row. Two percent of victories were won after playing five consecutive weeks. Danielle Kang and Minjee Lee, the two betting favorites, have played all four events before this week. Despite their success, I'm sitting them off.

Ability to Make Birdies: In the 54-hole event, the winning score has averaged just under 18 under par. That's an average of 65 at the par 71 Pinnacle Country Club. If a player can't make birdies at a high volume, or as my podcast partner Ben Harpring put it, "win a birdie fest," this week isn't going to see her in the winner's circle.

All odds for this week can be found here, courtesy of mybookie.

The Favorites

Inbee Park (+1200)

Park is the first back to back week pick of The Paisley Par, and with good reason. The Hall of Famer is a stalwart at this event. In 11 appearances, she's been in the top 10 six times, including a victory in 2013 and a T2 finish last year. For her career, she's been in the top 10 38% of the time.

Her game hasn't slowed down at Pinnacle Country Club over the years. The 14-year LPGA veteran posted her tournament career low of 62 in the opening round last season.

Kang deserves praise for her dominance since late 2019, but Park is quietly putting together a comparable streak. In her last five starts, she's finished in the top 5 three times, including a victory in Australia at the start of the year. If she brings her putting from Scotland to Arkansas, the field better be on high alert.

Bet: 7.5 units to win 90 units

Nelly Korda (+2000)

Korda is the 6th most likely to win this week, trailing Minjee Lee, Danielle Kang, Inbee Park, Sei Young Kim, and Lydia Ko. Yet, Korda is 4th in the world, with the only player ahead of her in the rankings in Kang.

It's not like Korda has played poorly since the restart. She finished in the top 15 at the AIG Women's Open, after taking a week off before the major.

Korda hasn't had a strong finish at the Walmart NWA Championship. In two appearances, her best finish is T37. That demerit may be why her odds are as low as they are. However, the key to winning this event is the ability to go low. Korda led the LPGA Tour in 2019 in average birdies per round.

It's hard to leave that value on the table with as much skill as the younger Korda has.

Bet: 5 units to win 100 units

The Chase Group

Brittany Altomare (+2800)

Altomare has been improving in every start she's made since the 2020 restart. The American is as steady as they come. She's made the cut for 39 consecutive events, and there's no reason to expect that streak not to extend to 40.

Admittedly, this is a column for predicting victories. Altomare hasn't won on the LPGA Tour yet, which isn't the most encouraging sign. However, she's been a runner up four times and has not finished outside of the top 20 in four starts at Pinnacle Country Club. The pinnacle performance of her career may be awaiting her come Sunday. Altomare has finished T3 and solo 5th her last two starts.

She shot her Sunday best of 66 last year, showing a needed composure to polish off a birdie-fest type tournament.

Bet: 5 units to win 140 units

Amy Yang (+4500)

Yang is a four-time winner who just so happens to have three victories at the same tournament: the Honda LPGA Thailand. Outside of that event, she hasn't won since 2013. So why pick her here?

In 11 career appearances at Pinnacle Country Club, she has two-second place finishes to her ledger, along with three other top 10 finishes. Yang also has the 2nd highest birdies per round from 2019 in the field, trailing only Nelly Korda. That explosive ability to birdie is a lot of value at (+4500), and she could reward handsomely this week.

Bet: 5 units to win 225 units

The Sleeper

Kristen Gillman (+9000)

Kristen Gillman was 19th in birdies last season, 2nd most amongst rookies behind Jeongeun Lee6. She's 19th in the field from 2019 average birdies per round and tied for 35th in odds to win this week. Furthermore, she posted five birdies in six holes during the third round of the AIG Women's Open en route to a T11 finish at the major.

She finished T41 in her only appearance last year, which isn't the most encouraging to try and leap 40 spots. However, she posted a 66 on Sunday, an encouraging sign of improvement for the 2nd year player. I'll take the long odds with a limited bet.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 225 units

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