Bets of the Week: The World's No. 1 Returns at the Pelican Women's Championship

Photo provided by Ben Harpring

The LPGA returns with world No. 1 Jin Young Ko making her 2020 season debut at Pelican Golf Club. It’s the first tournament since the second edition of the Drive On Championship at Lake Oconee. It’s the first running of the Pelican Women’s Championship.

Joining Ko in her return to play is the 2019 rookie of the year Jeongeun Lee6, who won the U.S. Women’s Open in her first year as an LPGA Tour member.

Notables to miss play this week include Danielle Kang and the Jutanugarn sisters. Kang was listed at +800 this week until today, and the Jutanugarns posted to Instagram last week that they tested positive for COVID-19.

In this truncated 2020 season, the Tour is returning from another extended break. It's been three weeks since the Drive On Championship when Ally McDonald became a first-time winner. Focuses on bets for this week are recent performance and playing well in tournament golf during the past three weeks off on other tours.

Ben Harpring joins the column once again to add his selections.

Full odds from MyBookie are here

Kent’s Picks

Jin Young Ko (+1100)

This selection feels similar to the bet I made at the first Drive on Championship. Danielle Kang was the highest-ranked player in the world in the field that week and had the 4th highest odds. Ko followed this script to a tee with the odds' initial release, when Kang was still listed. She's now tied for third with Brooke Henderson.

It's not just being the top player in the field but also being the 3rd most likely to win, adding up to Ko being a valuable selection. Unlike most players in the event, she's played tournaments during the three-week break on the KLPGA, the second-best Tour in the world. She's finished in the top 10 in three straight events, including a second-place finish at the KB Financial Group Star Championship, the final major of the KLPGA calendar. Her last tournament was T8 at the Hana Financial Group Championship, which finished on November 8th.

11-1 odds are also some of the highest Ko has ever had. Her odds last year, during one of the greatest individual scoring seasons in LPGA Tour history, dipped as low as 4-1 at the Cambia Portland Classic. It once again feels like a player returning to the LPGA from Korea is undervalued in the betting market.

Bet: 7.5 units to win 82.5 units

Minjee Lee (+1400)

Lee hoisted her first trophy of 2020 at the LET's Moonlight Classic in Dubai and now looks to win under the sunshine state sun.

The Australian is one of Tour's most consistent players since the restart, recording three top 10s over that span. Her odds shifted downward relative to some of the (+750) odds we have seen because of T58 and T60 finishes in her last two start on the LPGA Tour. Still, the middle east victory is a much better indicator for her possibility of winning this week than those previous two LPGA starts. Take the additional value granted from her past two performances, and put five on it.

Bet: 5 units to win 70 units

Brittany Altomare (+4000)

A victory for Altomare would make it back-to-back first-time winners on the LPGA Tour, and she's at half the odds of Ally McDonald's maiden win.

But the critical difference between the two is that Pelican Bay is Altomare’s home track.

She’s posted strong performances recently as well, with two top 10s in her last three starts, including a T8 at the Drive on Championship three weeks ago, her best finish in 2020. A player on the list of someone you’d expect to break through to the winner’s circle at some point, this tournament is one of her best chances to do so.

Bet: 5 units to win 200 units

Sung Hyun Park (+4500)

This column rinses and repeats with selecting the former world no. 1. At 45 to 1, Park is in a tie for the 16th most likely to win in betting odds. Park has won just shy of 9% of her starts on Tour. At 45 to 1, her implied probability is 2.2%. Her odds this week are 4x lower than her historical win percentage.

It’s not as if Park is coming off a missed cut either. She missed the cut in Portland in one of the oddest weeks due to terrible air quality conditions, then finished T27 at Shoprite and 17th at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship. The current No. 9 player in the Rolex world rankings is high value once again as she trends in the right direction towards the winner's circle.

Bet: 5 units to win 225 units

Bianca Pagdanganan (+7500)

This still feels like a high-value bet for a third-place finish and back to back top 10s, even with lopping off the 1 in front of the 75 from her odds at the last tournament. Her average distance off the tee at Reynolds Lake Oconee of 299 yards was right in the middle of the average driving distance at The Masters. Her explosive distance off the tee gives the Filipina a chance to deliver a victory.

This week marks her seventh career start on the LPGA Tour. If it were her 70th career start with no wins to her name with these last two finishes, her odds would likely be lower, giving additional value to the rookie.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 187.5 units

Ben’s Picks

Lexi Thompson (+2200)

Thompson has yet to win in 2020 but has won at least one LPGA Tour event every year since 2013. The Pelican Women's Championship is in Lexi's home state of Florida. She's had several weeks to work on all parts of her game. I expect a focused and relaxed Thompson to play well this week.

Bet: 5 Units to win 110 Units

Lydia Ko (+2500)

Ko has been playing very consistent golf since the LPGA Tour returned to action in late July. She has three top-10's including a T8 finish in her last event at the LPGA Drive On Championship-Reynolds Lake Oconee. I suspect a victory is very close with Lydia Ko back to doing Lydia Ko things (9th in Putts per GIR, 4th in Sand Saves, and 9th in Scoring Average).

Bet: 7 Units to win 175 Units

Sung Hyun Park (+4500)

At 45-1 odds, picking Park is an easy decision. While she only has a few starts on the LPGA this season, her ability to go extremely LOW always gives her a chance. With seven career wins, including 2 Major Championship victories on her resumé, Sung Hyun is always a threat. She is coming into this week with a 17th place finish in her last start at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship in October. Look for a well-rested World Number 9 to play well in Florida.

Bet: 8 Units to win 360 Units

Mi Hyang Lee (+9000)

A two-time LPGA Tour winner, Lee is one of the hardest workers and most consistent players on Tour. Like her First Round -8 (63) at the Shoprite LPGA Classic, Mi Hyang can get on a roll with the ability to go low. She is the best putter on Tour this season statistically, averaging 28.73 putts per round, and is 5th in putts per GIR. Look for a refreshed Lee near the top of the leaderboard at the end of the week.

Bet: 4 Units to win 360 Units

Muni He (+200000)

The second-year LPGA Tour member has not had the best year in 2020. However, a year ago, He played some of the best golf of her life at LPGA Q-Series. She played the long, grueling, 8 Round tournament in 21-under par and was the only player under par in all 8 Rounds, earning medalist honors. Some great November memories may propel her to a memorable week in Florida.

(Editor’s Note: See the 9th Tee Podcast on Q-Series feature episode with LPGA and Symetra Tour players Christina Kim, Maddie McCrary, Jaclyn Lee, and Amelia Lewis here)

Bet: 1 Unit to win 200 Units

Full Odds

+900 Nasa Hataoka

+1000 Sei Young Kim

+1100 Jin Young Ko

+1100 Brooke Henderson

+1400 Minjee Lee

+2200 Lexi Thompson

+2500 Ally McDonald

+2500 Lydia Ko

+3000 Jeong-Eun Lee6

+3300 Mel Reid

+3500 Mina Harigae

+3500 Jennifer Song

+4000 Brittany Altomare

+4000 Stacy Lewis

+4500 Katherine Kirk

+4500 Sung Hyun Park

+4500 Celine Boutier

+4500 Austin Ernst

+4500 Caroline Masson

+4500 Jennifer Kupcho

+5000 Mi Jung Hur

+5000 In Gee Chun

+5500 Jodi Ewart Shadoff

+5500 Jessica Korda

+5500 Hannah Green

+6000 Yealimi Noh

+6000 Yu Liu

+6000 Megan Khang

+6000 Jenny Shin

+6600 Sophia Popov

+7500 Bianca Pagdanganan

+7500 Ashleigh Buhai

+7500 Jasmine Suwannapura

+8000 Amy Olson

+8000 Matilda Castren

+9000 Mi Hyang Lee

+9000 Cheyenne Knight

+10000 Xiyu Lin

+10000 Eun Hee Ji

+10000 Nanna Koerstz Madsen

+11000 Brittany Lincicome

+11000 Angel Yin

+11000 Kristen Gillman

+11000 Azahara Munoz

+11000 Sarah Schmelzel

+12500 Pernilla Lindberg

+12500Chella Choi

+12500 Cristie Kerr

+12500 Alena Sharp

+14000 Andrea Lee

+14000 Leona Maguire

+14000 Robynn Ree

+15000 Angela Stanford

+15000 Gabriela Ruffels

+16000 Maria Fassi

+17500 Stephanie Meadow

+17500 Su Oh

+17500 Pornanong Phatlum

+17500 Lauren Stephenson

+17500 Bronte Law

+20000 Perrine Delacour

+22500 Madelene Sagstrom

+22500 Lindsey Weaver

+22500 Maria Fernanda Torres

+22500 Annie Park

+22500 Emma Talley

+22500 Jeong Eun Lee

+22500 Brittany Lang

+27500 Cydney Clanton

+27500 Lindy Duncan

+27500 Linnea Strom

+27500 Nicole Broch Larsen

+27500 Ryann OToole

+27500 Mo Martin

+27500 Hee Young Park

+30000 Gerina Piller

+35000 Haeji Kang

+35000 Elizabeth Szokol

+35000 Charlotte Thomas

+35000 Sandra Gal

+35000 Morgan Pressel

+40000 Sierra Brooks

+50000 Jing Yan

+50000 Jaye Marie Green

+50000 Elizabeth Nagel

+50000 Ayako Uehara

+50000 Sarah Burnham

+50000 Mind Muangkhumsakul

+50000 Jackie Stoelting

+60000 Esther Lee

+60000 Alana Uriell

+60000 Haley Moore

+60000 Daniela Darquea

+60000 Tiffany Joh

+60000 Dana Finkelstein

+75000 Jennifer Chang

+100000 Nathalie Filler

+125000 Julieta Granada

+125000 Jenny Coleman

+150000 Giulia Molinaro

+150000 Karrie Webb

+150000 Sarah Jane Smith

+175000 Jillian Hollis

+200000 Tiffany Chan

+200000 Maia Schechter

+200000 Muni He

+250000 Natalie Gulbis