Bets of the Week: Gainbridge LPGA

Photo provided by Ben Harpring

The first full-field event of 2021 has arrived, and after another month away from the action, the LPGA Tour is a full send. The tour is at Lake Nona CC, visiting for the first time since the inaugural Solheim Cup in 1990. Fitting that Annika Sorenstam makes her first return to playing on the tour since 2008 here, as after all, her office sits just outside the 16th hole. Despite her incredible win percentage and (+40000) odds, that’s not going to be a bet made this week.

There are a couple of market inefficiencies to focus on this week. The players who perform well at the beginning of the season, and players that showed towards the end of last season that they were regaining form. We're back to five picks and 25 units to allocate amongst them, with 120 players to pick from.

However, I’ll still allocate 25 units this week. Bovada has a bet on the 2021 Official Money List leader, and I'm placing two five-unit bets.

For those who missed the bets of the week at Diamond Resorts- I’m shopping odds from Bovada, MyBookie, and Intertops. Full odds will have them all listed, and each player bet on will have their website with best odds posted. If the site isn’t listed, the pick’s odds are the same at all available sites.

Danielle Kang (+1100) (Bovada)

The Diamond Resorts Tournament of Champions provided no evidence that Kang will slow down at the start of the season, with her playoff loss to Jessica Korda. It maintains a three-year trend of Kang opening the season bringing her A-game. At the beginning of 2019, Kang went T18 at Diamond Resorts, then 9th at the Honda LPGA Thailand. In 2020, Kang opened the year T12 at Diamond Resorts, then solo 3rd at the Gainbridge LPGA. After the restart, Kang opened the first two events with a pair of victories at the Drive On Championship at Inverness Club and the Marathon Classic. Don't overthink the same bet that led to this column's first victory, and trust that Kang knows how to get herself ready to contend from the jump.

Funnily enough, these are the same odds that she had at the victory at the first Drive On Championship at Inverness Club.

Kang has won three of her last seventeen starts, a 17.6% clip. 11 to 1 odds is implied odds of 8.3%. I don't think I'd cut Kang's implied odds in half just because Jin Young Ko and Sei Young Kim weren't in the field for her two 2020 victories. Bovada gives (+1100), while MyBookie and Intertops give (+1000). Thanks for the extra (+100). I won't complain.

Bet: 7.5 Units to win 82.5 units

Nasa Hataoka (+3000) (MyBookie)

Hataoka lost back-to-back playoffs to open the 2020 season, including a playoff at this event (though it's at a different golf course, an important note). Her first start of the restart was a T12 at the Aberdeen Standard Investments Ladies Scottish Open. Her last victory was her 4th start of 2019. Another talented player who can come out of the gate firing, I view Hataoka's value comparably to Lexi Thompson and Lydia Ko, who are at 18 and 14 to 1 this week, respectively. The extra 15 for a player of very similar recent skill, and the 7th player in the world, sounds like a deal to me.

Bovada's odds shifted on Hataoka from (+3300) at the start of the week down to (+2800), incentivizing placing earlier bets.

Bet: 5 Units to win 150 units

Sung Hyun Park (+6600)

Park is the clubhouse leader as the most bet on player in this column, and it's for a reason- the tantalizing price of the talent the former No. 1 player in the world possesses at a tie for 17th most likely to win this week. Park sat atop the world in the middle of 2019, the last player to take the crown from reigning No. 1 Jin Young Ko. She has seven career victories on the LPGA Tour, and didn't hoist a trophy in 2020 in part due to recovering from a shoulder injury that kept her game below the immensely high standard of play she has for herself.

It stands to reason that Park’s shoulder is healthier now than it was when she returned for the ANA Inspiration last year. I also believe her game should be better for that, which alone makes it a valuable deal.

Park also has some Olympic motivation right now, as she’s on the outside looking in to represent South Korea in Tokyo. The two-time major champion and 10th in the world needs to be amongst the top four South Koreans in the world rankings inside the top 15, and Hyo-Joo Kim, who dominated the KLPGA last year, is one slot ahead of Park in the world rankings at 9th.

Inbee Park faced similar pressure last year, planning her season as if the pandemic wouldn't delay the Olympics, and had two top-two finishes, including a victory, in her opening four starts of the year before the shutdown.

Bet: 5 units to win 330 units

Celine Boutier (+8000)

It's a repeat bet off the jump of the season for Celine Boutier. Once again, she entices at 80 to 1 because of historic early season success. The Frenchwoman had top 10s in three of her first four starts to 2020, with a heartbreaking loss at the Drive On Championship to open the restart. Her lone career victory was her first start of 2019 when she won in the land down under the ISPS Handa Vic Open. Boutier finished T11 a month ago at the Diamond Resorts Tournament of Champions, and that's an offseason ago for those who played in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.

Bet: 4.5 units to win 360 units

Brittany Lincicome (+10000)

The eight-time winner turned a corner at the end of the 2020 season, posting three top 15 finishes in her final five starts. She added a top 10 (albeit in a 25-player field) at the Diamond Resorts TOC to open 2021, and that resume alone makes her worth more than 100 to 1. Lincicome's key is that this isn't an ascension to the promised land of a first win. That's a difficult hurdle to surpass. She's an eight-time winner who last won in her first start of 2018. Lincicome also won her first start of 2017, winning the Pure Silk-Bahamas LPGA Classic in back-to-back seasons. She's no stranger to hoisting trophies early in the year, and it's a value play to see her possibly do it again here.

Bet: 3 units to win 300 units

Full Odds

2020 Season Results

Units Spent: 350

Units Won: 547.5

ROI: +56.4%

2021 Season Results

Units Spent: 25

Units Won: 0

ROI: N/A