Bets of the Week for The Drive On Championship

The Course and Field

This is the first time the LPGA Tour has been to Inverness Club. The course will play host to the Solheim Cup in 2021. Inverness Club has a storied history, having hosted four U.S. Opens and two PGA Championships. It completed renovations in 2018 to restore itself to its original Donald Ross design when Inverness Club was built in 1903.

It's playing at 6,550 yards for the 54-hole return to LPGA Tour action after the Covid-19 layoff. The field is missing most top South Korean talent, as World No. 1 Jin Young Ko, No. 3 Sung Hyun Park, no. 6 Sei Young Kim, No. 10 Hyo Joo Kim, No. 11 Inbee Park, No. 13 Jeongeun Lee6, No. 14 So Yeon Ryu, and No. 20 Mi Jung Hur all are not in Toledo this week. Also missing from the field in the top 10 are No. 5 Nasa Hataoka and No. 7 Brooke Henderson.

Market Inefficiencies to Focus on This Week

Playing tournament golf during the down period: Was it safe? Probably not. But tournament golf involves rhythm, and it's hard to jump back in and win after not playing for an extended period. Players who played on mini-tours and the Rose Ladies Series in England are important to focus on this week.

Experience: This is effectively the start of the 2020 LPGA season part two. Give me players who have been around the LPGA Tour before this week, before we delve into some of the highly touted rookies on Tour this season.

Solheim Cup: Players who are in the pool of potentially playing here for their country in 2021 have their best chance to make a strong argument this week. Captains Pat Hurst and Catriona Matthew will have their eyes peeled to see if their prospects hold up here.

All odds listed are from mybookie as of 2:00 PM PST July 30th, 2020 and can be found here.

The Favorites

Danielle Kang (+1100)

Market Inefficiency: Experience

I'm more inclined to bet heavier on the favorites this week because of the large layoff. In a unique period in history with plenty of uncertainty around COVID-19, the more experience playing, the better.

Even better than that? Playing better with that experience. Danielle Kang, year over year, has improved. Her two-event start to the season pointed to that trend continuing.

Kang returned at the start of the 2020 season with a 63 in Orlando, building off the best golf of her career in 2019. Over her last five starts, Kang's been in contention. Win. 2nd place. T3. T12. 3rd place. That trend polished off a full year of being near the top of the leaderboard. She finished in the top 10 in 55% of her appearances over the full 2019 campaign in 21 starts.

With more time to work with her swing coach Butch Harmon, whom she credited with her strong opening to 2020, one can only imagine her in contention out of the gate. She has one win in each of the past three seasons- there's a strong chance with a weaker field than usual she'll notch her fourth this week.

Bet: 7.5 units to win 82.5 units

Lexi Thompson (+1200)

Market Inefficiencies: Experience, Playing Tournament Golf During the Down period

Last week in the lead up to the Drive On Championship, Lexi Thompson finished in 2nd place in a Minor League Golf Event, posting a 66 to close before heading to Toledo.

Thompson is the steadiest player on the LPGA Tour at finding the winner's circle. She has won at least once every year going back to 2013. Again, give me the experience at a new course and unchartered Covid-19 waters.

Of the four most likely to win, Thompson and Kang are in the 3rd and 4th respectively. With Thompson the one of the four to play in tournaments heading into the first Drive On Championship, I'll take the extra (+300) compared to the odds on favorites of Minjee Lee and Nelly Korda.

Bet: 7.5 units to win 90 units

Chase Group

Bronte Law (+6600)

Market Inefficiencies: Experience, Playing Tournament Golf During the Down period

I was shocked when I saw these odds for Law. She has a scoring spurt-ability on Sundays, as shown at the Mediheal Championship last year when she carded a 65 on the final round to get into a three-way playoff. Law played in the Rose Ladies Series for tournament reps.

Her singles opponent at the Solheim Cup, Ally McDonald, is at (+4000) this week. Not that a single head to head matchup is of a fair sample size to dictate who is a better golfer, but that's a lot of additional odds given to a player who has won before versus McDonald trying to find the winner's circle for the first time.

Law holds a win under her belt already. Her Sunday debut in the 2019 Solheim Cup was a critical component of one of the best walk-offs in sports history, and her preview before 2021 is another chance to bring out the competitive juices she showed at Gleneagles.

Bet: 5 units to win 330 units

Anne van Dam (+9000)

Market Inefficiency: Solheim Cup

It'd be hard to imagine van Dam not on the 2021 European team looking to defend their Solheim Cup. She's dominated on the LET, with five career wins and her most recent victory last November.

She blogged after the victory her focus on her game turned to wedge play and putting. If that off-season focus translates to in-season success, van Dam won't have odds like this for long.

The Netherlands native was the third-longest hitter on the LPGA in 2019 at 287.6 yards, trailing leader Maria Fassi by five yards. With the distance she holds, she'll have plenty of opportunities to attack the 6,550-yard Inverness with a refined wedge game.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 225 units

The Sleeper

Market Inefficiency: Playing Tournament Golf During the Down Period

Before revealing the pick, let's talk about two different players who are both NCAA champions and budding in their LPGA careers.

Player A: 2020 LPGA Rookie. Three wins on a mini-tour during the down period in 12 appearances. One LPGA start, one missed cut. Odds this week: (+7000)

Player B: 2019 LPGA Rookie. One win on a mini-tour during the down period. Three 2020 LPGA Starts, one top-15 finish, two missed cuts. Odds this week: (+27500)

Player B has a lot of value on paper, and I'm taking 2.5 units of it. Maria Fassi and Haley Moore, Player B and Player A respectively, are both expected to win on the LPGA Tour at some point and incredible talents. I'd be shocked if Fassi's odds don't get closer to where Moore's are currently as the season progresses.

For someone with a chance to win with her distance off the tee, that's a lot of value on the board. The market has also recognized this, with Fassi at (+30000) to start the week.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 687.5 units.

Sign up at mybookie using the code bit.ly/mybookie-ybk for a 50% match of up to $1000 on your first deposit. Legal disclaimer: There's no guarantee of return with any betting. All bets are taken at your own risk. Do not bet money you cannot afford to lose.