Bets of The Week For The Marathon Classic

The Course- Highlands Meadows Golf Club

Unlike the first trip to the Inverness Club for the LPGA Tour last week, this week is the 30th consecutive visit to Highland Meadows Golf Club and the 35th running of the Marathon Classic.

With this much history, there is significantly more data to work with projecting out picks this week. Defending champion Sei Young Kim is in Korea and will not be defending her title due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There should be vastly different numbers on the leaderboard this week than last week. Over the last ten Marathon Classics, the average score of the winner is just shy of (-17).

Market Inefficiencies To Focus on This Week

History at the Course- There's something to be said for stepping onto a golf course knowing you've played well there before.

Playing During the Downtime- This was highlighted last week, even though the winner Danielle Kang didn't do this. In the top 10, Celine Boutier, Yui Kawamoto, Gemma Dryburgh, Brittany Lang, Mina Harigae, and Sarah Burnham all played in either mini-tour events, on the Japan LPGA or in a woman's state opens during the downtime.

It's tough to call this a market inefficiency, as it's generally priced into the odds, but it's worth noting. Of all winners since 2000, 88% made the cut the week prior outside of the first event of the year. The average finish was 19th place of those who made the cut. This is more of a ground-rule than a market inefficiency that applies beginning this week. I don't plan on betting on anyone who missed the cut last week except for very rare exceptions.

All odds can be found here https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/lpga/

The Favorites

Carlota Ciganda (+1800)

Market Inefficiencies- History at the Course, Playing During the Downtime

Over the last calendar year, Carlota Ciganda played in eight LPGA events and finished in the top 30 in seven of them. Since her last win in November of 2016 at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational, she has finished in the top 10 in just shy of 32% of her 72 starts.

Ciganda has continually knocked on the door of the victory circle, and the Spaniard holds a strong opportunity in the palm of her hand with a course she was in contention in on Sunday of last year. Ciganda was in a tie for 4th heading into the final round when she shot a 77. That was her worst score of the season in 2019. One cannot expect a repeat of that performance aberration for the 30-year old this year.

Bet: 7.5 units for 135 units

Mina Harigae (+2500)

Market Inefficiencies- History at the Course, Playing During the Downtime

How don't you bet on someone when they go on twitter calling their shot for multiple victories this season?

Her confidence is brimming after four Cactus Tour wins, and as Monday Q Info pointed out on Twitter, she won her final two events averaging just over 64 and won by thirty combined strokes. Thirty. Saying that word out loud feels like it's an oxymoron. But for Harigae, she took that confidence and finished at even par, T6 last week.

It's not without prior success at Highland Meadows Golf Club either for Harigae. She finished T9 in 2018 with four rounds in the 60s. It'd be a marathon of a career before her first win for the 2010 LPGA rookie, but it'd certainly be worthwhile.

Bet: 5 units to win 125 units

The Chase Group

Yui Kawamoto (+7000)

Market Inefficiencies- Playing During the Downtime

The 2020 LPGA rookie has five starts to her name on the LPGA Tour, with two top 10s. She played on the JLPGA during the downtime and finished in solo 4th last week. There's a clear talent to be one of five players to shoot under par in a 130 player field.

She's no stranger to winning, taking home the hardware at the 2019 AXA Ladies Golf Tournament on the JLPGA. She played in the 2020 Earth Mondamine Cup in late June in Japan before traveling to the United States.

Like a lengthy putt, if you keep putting yourself in the top 10, eventually you'll break through to the winner's circle. Kawamoto has an opportunity to do it early in her LPGA career. (+7000) has her as the 28th most likely to win this week.

Bet: 5 Units to win 350 units

Gemma Dryburgh (+8000)

Market Inefficiency- Playing During the Downtime

Gemma Dryburgh returned to the United States after winning two events at the Rose Ladies Series. She kept up the momentum with the best finish of her LPGA Tour career of T6, one of ten players to shoot even par or better at Inverness Golf Club. And…. MyBookie rewards her with odds 2000 points higher than last week? Sign me up!

She posted T30 at the Marathon Classic last year in her only previous appearance at the tournament. She rounded out the effort with a 67 on Sunday to jump up 21 spots. Dryburgh takes on a weaker field with far more confidence this go around. As Bobby Jones once said, "Competitive golf is played mainly on a five-and-a-half-inch course, the space between your ears." Dryburgh has that mastered right now.

Bet: 5 units to win 400 units

The Sleeper

Jasmine Suwannapura (+12500)

Market Inefficiency- History of winning at the course

It's not good to break your own rules in week two, as Jasmine Suwanapurra is the 45th most likely to win this week. However, the 2018 Marathon Classic Champion is the most recent champion in the field and is being slept on at (+12500).

She won at Highland Meadows Golf Club in a playoff against Brittany Lincicome in 2018, who has odds of (+4000) this week. Suwanapurra won the 2019 inaugural Dow Great Lakes Bay Invitational since her maiden victory at Highland Meadows Golf Club two years ago. Lincicome hasn't won since, returning from maternity leave this season. Also, Suwanapurra finished T20 last week, while Lincicome finished T51.

Your golf game has to be in pretty good shape to be one of nine players to shoot under par during the downpour Saturday at Inverness Club, as Suwanapurra carded a 70.

That's a major betting value difference between the 2018 playoff participants that's hard to leave on the table.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 312.5 units

Do Not Bet On

Perinne Delacour- Delacour announced on Twitter Tuesday that her caddy tested positive for COVID-19. While she hasn't tested positive, out of an abundance of caution, she withdrew this week. It's unfortunate for the 2019 Symetra Player of the Year after a strong performance in the Drive On Championship, where she finished T16. MyBookie still has her odds listed at (+11000).

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