Bets of the Week at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship: Major Value for a Past Champion

Photo provided by Ben Harpring

It’s the third of four majors on the 2020 LPGA Tour calendar. The first two were won by betting longshots Sophia Popov and Mirim Lee.

This is the first event since the AIG Women's Open in late August that wasn't hosted on the same course as the year before. There's more emphasis on past major performance, in with a nod that the PGA of America sets up the course.

In the 132-player field, eight club professionals are playing in the event. With all due respect, even with the performance Jimin Kang put on last year, there's a different class between the PGA members and the LPGA Tour players in the event.

The new wrinkle this week is Ben Harpring joining the betting column. Welcome to him, and listen to our podcast, The 9th Tee Podcast, for further analysis of our picks week over week.

There was no collusion of selections, but we agree on two players.

As always, the gimmes still stand. The player needs to be playing well coming into the week. On to the picks!

Betting odds can be found here, courtesy of MyBookie.

Kent’s Picks

Brooke Henderson (+1600)

The 2016 KPMG Women’s PGA Championship has been in the 2nd best form on Tour compared to Nelly Korda. Both players finished in the top 10 in the last two tournaments they played, the ANA Inspiration and the Shoprite LPGA Classic. Korda also finished in the top 10 at the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship, when Henderson was still finding form with a T49 finish. That’s the difference between 700 in odds between the two of them. They both were in the playoff at the ANA Inspiration. Of the group of players at +1600, Henderson is playing the most golf, and that’s a nearly 50% odds difference to bet on Korda instead.

Henderson has been in the top 6 in this tournament in all but one of her five career appearances, with an aberration of T30 last year.

Bet: 7.5 units to win 120 units

Sei Young Kim (+1800)

Sei Young Kim’s top 10 streak stopped at the ANA Inspiration, where she finished T18. She matched that result at the Shoprite LPGA Classic. Kim has yet to finish outside of the top 20 in the last 12 months. This is also a tournament that she’s been consistent in. Kim has not finished outside of the top 25 at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship in five career appearances, with a solo 2nd finish in 2015 and another top 5 in 2017 at T4.

She’s the winningest player on the LPGA Tour without a major on her resume. She has a great chance to remove that moniker with as much talent as the current LPGA Tour leading scoring average player has.

Bet: 7.5 units to win 135 units

Sung Hyun Park (+6600)

At +5500 at the ANA Inspiration, I thought Park was a steal. Adding 11 to 1 more to her odds makes this an even better selection. She’s coming off a T27 finish in Jersey shore.

The last time Park was outside of the top 10 on the leaderboard in this tournament was Sunday at Olympia Fields in 2017. She won by a playoff in 2018 and lost by a stroke to Hannah Green in 2019. Park won the 2017 U.S. Women’s Open as well for her two major career wins.

The flashes have been there since Park's return to the LPGA Tour. She posted two 66s at Seaview Resort and an opening-round 69 at the ANA Inspiration. Should the world's former No.1 put it together for four rounds, she's going to be in the mix for the third consecutive year. With her resume, you'd think she'd be at least in the top 10 most likely to win this week. Instead, Park is tied for 24th most likely at 66 to 1. That's a major value.

Bet: 5 units to win 330 units

Jasmine Suwanapurra (+7000)

The solo 2nd place finisher at the AIG Women’s Open backed that performance up last week with a 5th place finish at the Shoprite LPGA Classic. The two-time winner is peaking into an event where she has not seen much prior success, as she missed the cut the last three seasons.

Since her first career win at the Marathon Classic in 2018, Suwannapura is a different player. The nine-year LPGA Tour veteran posted four of her seven career top 10s since that win in June of ’18, including a victory at the DOW Great Lakes Bay Invitational.

It’s worth a flyer on the 61st player in the Rolex World Rankings at native with her recent stretch of performance under the bright lights.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 175 units

Eun Hee Ji (+17500)

The past major champion hasn’t left the window of contending in her career. Ji won the Diamond Resorts Tournament of Champions in 2019 for her fifth career win and third straight year with a victory on the LPGA Tour. She’s no stranger to success in majors, winning the U.S. Women’s Open in 2009. She’s also knocked on the door of taking home the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, with a T2 finish in 2012. In her two starts since returning to the LPGA Tour, she finished T44 in Portland and T22 last week at the Shoprite LPGA Classic. At 175 to 1, the Korean is worth a bet.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 437.5 units

Ben’s Picks

Brooke Henderson (+1600)

This feels like a Brooke Henderson Tournament. Henderson has won at least once on the LPGA Tour every year since 2015, and with only a few events remaining on the 2020 schedule, her game is peaking. Last week at the Shoprite LPGA Classic she finished T6. At the ANA Inspiration, the most recent major played, she finished T2.

There’s momentum on her side as well as great memories, and success, playing KPMG Women’s PGA Championships. Most notably the Winningest Canadian Golfer of all time won the 2016 KPMG Women’s PGA Championship at Sahalee Country Club. Henderson also has a T6 finish to her credit at the 2018 Championship at Kemper Lakes Golf Club near Chicago, as well as a Runner-up finish at the 2017 Championship played at Olympia Fields Country Club. Another big, challenging, golf course.

Playing well, motivated, comfortable, and ready to win.

Bet: 8 Units to win 128 Units

Lydia Ko (+2800)

Ko has been playing really good golf since the LPGA returned to action in July. Ko has finished T28, T2, T12, T14, T28, 6, and most recently T42. That most recent finish was not great, however, she's had a couple of weeks off to sharpen up, and had the opportunity to refine her game with her coach. She will head into this Major Championship fully ready to go. This year has seen important parts of Lydia's game return to the levels we saw from her during her dominant stretch as a teenager. Ko is currently 14th in Putting Average and is 10th in scoring average. Major Championships are all about figuring out how to post the best possible score, and Ko is one of the best at that. With a T10 finish in 2019, and a Runner-up finish in 2016, she has great memories of this Championship to lean on.

Experience, rest, and a short game that will almost always keep her within striking distance.

Bet: 5 Units to Win 140 Units

Sung Hyun Park (+6600)

This is a no brainer pick to me. While Park has only three starts on the LPGA Tour this season, she seems to have found something last week in New Jersey. With second round and final round scores of -5, Park showed the firepower she possesses. One of the longest players on Tour, she also hits the ball higher than almost every other player, which makes her game very well suited for the Majors. She has the ability to go extremely low on golf courses most other players can not. Park also has tremendous success at KPMG Women's PGA Championships. She finished runner-up last year to Hannah Green after a spectacular Final Round 68 (-4). She also won the event in 2018 with remarkably clutch shots down the final stretch of holes, as well as in the playoff. Park is a Two Time Major Champion, with the ability to go LOW at any tournament she tees it up at.

Bet: 8 Units to win 528 Units

Kelly Tan (+20000)

In her last two events Tan has finished T24 and most recently T18 at the Shoprite LPGA Classic. While she has not yet won on the LPGA Tour, she is having one of her best seasons, with two Top-11 finishes. Kelly has shown the ability to go low and is looking very comfortable on the golf course. These are long odds, but she is definitely a player ready for her breakout win. Maybe she can claim a Major Championship as her first victory like last year's winner Hannah Green?

Bet: 2 Units to win 400 Units

Jennifer Chang (+100000)

These are very long odds, but the LPGA Tour Rookie is no stranger to success. A 4-Time High School State Champion in North Carolina, a College All American her Sophomore Year at USC, and a T9 finish at the 2019 LPGA Q-series. She’s got game, and has succeeded at every level she has played. While Rookie years are not easy, and 2020 has made things incredibly complex, don’t count out a highly successful player who is getting settled into Tour Life. She has seen and played the course more than most players in the field, and this could very well be Chang’s week.

Bet: 2 Units to win 2,000 Units

Do Not Bet: Charlotte Thomas (+35000)

Thomas withdrew due to her caddy testing positive for COVID-19.

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Full Odds

+900 NELLY KORDA +1600 DANIELLE KANG +1600 NASA HATAOKA +1600 MINJEE LEE +1600 BROOKE HENDERSON +1800 SEI YOUNG KIM +1800 LEXI THOMPSON +1800 INBEE PARK +2800 LYDIA KO +2800 MEL REID +3000 GEORGIA HALL +3300 CAROLINE MASSON +3300 JENNIFER SONG +4000 MORIYA JUTANUGARN +4000 CARLOTA CIGANDA +4500 BRITTANY ALTOMARE +4500 JESSICA KORDA +4500 YU LIU +5000 STACY LEWIS +5000 ALLY MCDONALD +5500 AMY YANG +6000 JODI EWART SHADOFF +6000 MEGAN KHANG +6600 SUNG HYUN PARK +6600 KATHERINE KIRK +6600 AUSTIN ERNST +6600 MI HYANG LEE +6600 JENNY SHIN +7000 IN GEE CHUN +7000 LIZETTE SALAS +7000 CHARLEY HULL +7000 CELINE BOUTIER +7000 ARIYA JUTANUGARN +7000 JASMINE SUWANNAPURA +7000 ASHLEIGH BUHAI +7500 YEALIMI NOH +7500 HANNAH GREEN +7500 ANNA NORDQVIST +8000 SOPHIA POPOV +9000 MINA HARIGAE +9000 KRISTEN GILLMAN +9000 JENNIFER KUPCHO +9000 AMY OLSON +10000 AZAHARA MUNOZ +10000 CHEYENNE KNIGHT +11000 GABY LOPEZ +11000 ANNE VAN DAM +11000 LEONA MAGUIRE +11000 CHRISTINA KIM +12500 HINAKO SHIBUNO +14000 XIYU LIN +15000 ALENA SHARP +15000 ANGEL YIN +16000 ANDREA LEE +16000 NANNA KOERSTZ MADSEN +16000 MARIA FASSI +17500 EUN HEE JI +17500 SARAH SCHMELZEL +17500 MIRIM LEE +17500 ANNIE PARK +17500 RYANN OTOOLE +20000 CHELLA CHOI +20000 KELLY TAN +20000 CRISTIE KERR +20000 ANGELA STANFORD +20000 PAJAREE ANANNARUKARN +22500 EMMA TALLEY +22500 BRITTANY LANG +22500 BRITTANY LINCICOME +22500 PERRINE DELACOUR +22500 JULIA ENGSTROM +22500 NICOLE BROCH LARSEN +25000 ROBYNN REE +25000 MARIAH STACKHOUSE +25000 BRONTE LAW +25000 GERINA PILLER +27500 MARIA FERNANDA TORRES +27500 YUI KAWAMOTO +27500 CYDNEY CLANTON +27500 LINDSEY WEAVER +27500 SU OH +27500 PORNANONG PHATLUM +30000 JEONG EUN LEE +30000 HARU NOMURA +30000 PERNILLA LINDBERG +30000 MADELENE SAGSTROM +30000 LINNEA STROM +30000 LAUREN STEPHENSON +30000 HEE YOUNG PARK +35000 STEPHANIE MEADOW +35000 CHARLOTTE THOMAS +40000 MATILDA CASTREN +40000 GEMMA DRYBURGH +40000 KIM KAUFMAN +40000 MORGAN PRESSEL +40000 JAYE MARIE GREEN +40000 CAROLINE HEDWALL +40000 SANDRA GAL +50000 JING YAN +50000 BIANCA PAGDANGANAN +50000 PATTY TAVATANAKIT +50000 SARAH BURNHAM +50000 HAEJI KANG +50000 DANIELA HOLMQVIST +50000 TIFFANY JOH +60000 ALISON LEE +60000 WICHANEE MEECHAI +60000 DANA FINKELSTEIN +75000 ESTHER LEE +75000 ALBANE VALENZUELA +75000 PEIYUN CHIEN +75000 CAROLINE INGLIS +75000 HALEY MOORE +100000 ELIZABETH SZOKOL +100000 KENDALL DYE +100000 KLARA SPILKOVA +100000 KRISTY MCPHERSON +100000 LINDY DUNCAN +100000 JENNIFER CHANG +100000 SARAH JANE SMITH +125000 SARAH KEMP +200000 DOTTIE ARDINA +200000 ELLEN CERESKO +200000 JENNIFER BOROCZ +200000 JILLIAN HOLLIS +200000 SAMANTHA MORRELL +250000 JORDAN LINTZ +250000 STEPHANIE CONNELLY EISWERTH +250000 SEUL-KI HAWLEY +400000 JOANNA COE +400000 LAURA DAVIES +400000 ALISON CURDT