Bets of the Week at the CME Group Tour Championship

Photo courtesy of Ben Harpring

Welcome to the final Bets of the Week column of 2020. There's no cut at the tour championship, which has 72 players in it, the smallest field of the year. Seventy players played their way into the field via CME points, and two received sponsor exemptions.

Tiburon Golf Club is hosting the last event for the seventh straight year. It’s usually played in November, so this go-around is close enough to past tournaments that recent performance is a valuable asset to consider in making selections, unlike the last few events.

With the U.S. Women's Open delaying to a Monday finish, previous experience at Tiburon Golf Club is valued more than most weeks with only two days to prepare.

The outright favorites are all under 10-1, which I aim to stay away from, even with the limited field size. With this in mind, here are the selections of the week.

Betting odds are listed here, courtesy of MyBookie.

So Yeon Ryu (+1400)

Ryu makes it back to back weeks in the column, and for similar reasons she was selected last week, she's been picked again: her consistency at Tiburon Golf Course.

She’s played in the CME Group Tour Championship every year it’s been held at Tiburon, with five top 10s in seven starts. Her best finish was 2nd place in 2016, and Ryu finished T9 last year. She has top 10 finishes in three of her last five starts on tour.

The seven-time winner finished T2 and 20th in her two tournaments on the LPGA since returning from South Korea.

Bet: 7.5 Units to win 105 units

Charley Hull (+2500)

Tiburon and Hull are a match like tea and biscuits, as the British woman won in 2016 for her lone career victory, finished solo 2nd in 2019, and has T11 and T15s to her resume in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Hull tested positive for COVID-19 before the ANA Inspiration. She returned to the tour and missed back to back cuts before regaining form, posting two top 10s at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship and the VOA Classic before a T30 at the U.S. Women's Open. That's playing well, particularly in December, headed into the course that holds her lone career victory.

Over the last four years, she’s tied with Ariya Jutanugarn for the lowest scoring average at the tournament of 68.75. Call that a tease for a later selection. As Mike Krukow, San Francisco Giants broadcaster, calls it, Hull has some ownage here. I'll take the ownage bet.

Bet: 5 units to win 125 units

Jessica Korda (+3300)

The sunshine state has let Korda’s game shine the brightest this season, as the elder Korda sister posted three top 10 finishes in the last three of her previous four starts in Florida. She finished T6 at the CME Group Tour Championship in '19, T15 at the Diamond Resorts Tournament of Champions, T8 at Gainbridge LPGA Boca Rio, and T6 at the Pelican Women’s Championship.

Like Ryu, Korda has played the CME Group Tour Championship every year it’s been at Tiburon Golf Club. She’s turned the page since 2017. From 2013 to 2016, Korda averaged 33rd place at the tour finale. Since 2017, she’s averaged 7th place. Over the last four years, Korda has also averaged under 70 per round, at 69.63 strokes per round. It's the 6th best of those who’ve played all four years.

Her past and recent success point towards Korda being in contention and a likely top 10. At 14th most likely to win at 33 to 1, I’ll take the market giving her a few spots.

Bet: 5 units to win 165 units

Ariya Jutanugarn (+4500)

Before Jutanguran contracted Covid-19, she was in contention at the Drive On Championship at Reynolds Lake Oconee. Upon her return, she finished T62 at the VOA Classic but rebounded with a roller-coaster final round at the U.S. Women's Open to finish T9, her second top 10 in her last three starts.

Her game is trending in the right direction, and Jutanugarn boasts the 2nd lowest scoring average at the CME Group Tour Championship over the past four years, including a victory in 2017. Her other finishes include a T4 in 2016, a T5 in 2018, and a T11 in 2019. As Hull's selection above mentioned, she's tied for the lowest scoring average at Tiburon Golf Club.

For her past performance, that’s a juicy return on the table. It’s a boom or bust selection, with not much in between in Jutanugarn’s game. I’ll take the swing for the fences.

Bet: 5 units to win 225 units

Jennifer Kupcho (+8000)

The CME Group Tour Championship is a tournament that favors favorites and big names. The big stage provides an opportunity for Kupcho to announce her name on the LPGA Tour. More importantly, Kupcho is playing with a healthy level of consistency coming into Tiburon. Kupcho missed four consecutive cuts before putting her clubs from college back in her bag, then found herself two shots away from a playoff at the Shoprite LPGA Classic. It's the second second-place finish of her two-year LPGA Tour career.

The American was in contention again at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship. Kupcho rolls into the tour championship off a T11 in Texas and a 30th place result at the U.S. Women's Open. She's 34th most likely to win this week per betting odds, and based on recent performance, I think that’s mispriced.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 200 units

Season Results

Units Spent: 325

Units Won: 547.5

ROI: +68.5%

Full Odds

+800 SEI YOUNG KIM

+850 INBEE PARK

+900 JIN YOUNG KO

+1200 DANIELLE KANG

+1400 BROOKE HENDERSON

+1400 SO YEON RYU

+2000 LYDIA KO

+2000 NELLY KORDA

+2500 NASA HATAOKA

+2500 CHARLEY HULL

+2800 LEXI THOMPSON

+3000 CARLOTA CIGANDA

+3300 JESSICA KORDA

+3300 MINJEE LEE

+3500 GEORGIA HALL

+4500 ARIYA JUTANUGARN

+4500 JENNIFER SONG

+5000 YEALIMI NOH

+5500 MORIYA JUTANUGARN

+6600 AUSTIN ERNST

+6600 BRITTANY ALTOMARE

+7000 CAROLINE MASSON

+7000 ANNA NORDQVIST

+7500 MEGAN KHANG

+7500 MEL REID

+7500 AMY OLSON

+7500 STACY LEWIS

+8000 JODI EWART SHADOFF

+8000 JENNIFER KUPCHO

+9000 ANGELA STANFORD

+9000 CHEYENNE KNIGHT

+9000 JENNY SHIN

+9000 AMY YANG

+10000 LIZETTE SALAS

+10000 GABY LOPEZ

+10000 IN GEE CHUN

+11000 HANNAH GREEN

+11000 CELINE BOUTIER

+11000 MINA HARIGAE

+11000 KATHERINE KIRK

+11000 ANNE VAN DAM

+12500 STEPHANIE MEADOW

+12500 SARAH SCHMELZEL

+12500 YU LIU

+12500 CRISTIE KERR

+12500 BIANCA PAGDANGANAN

+12500 ASHLEIGH BUHAI

+14000 MADELENE SAGSTROM

+14000 BRITTANY LINCICOME

+15000 LINDSEY WEAVER

+16000 KELLY TAN

+16000 NANNA KOERSTZ MADSEN

+16000 AZAHARA MUNOZ

+16000 KRISTEN GILLMAN

+17500 XIYU LIN

+17500 ANDREA LEE

+17500 JASMINE SUWANNAPURA

+17500 MI HYANG LEE

+20000 PERRINE DELACOUR

+20000 LEONA MAGUIRE

+20000 ALENA SHARP

+20000 BRITTANY LANG

+20000 MIRIM LEE

+22500 LINNEA STROM

+22500 PERNILLA LINDBERG

+22500 MARIA FASSI

+25000 CHRISTINA KIM

+30000 CYDNEY CLANTON

+35000 EMMA TALLEY

+40000 HEE YOUNG PARK

+100000 SARAH KEMP

+400000 NATALIE GULBIS