Bets of the Week at the ANA Inspiration: Smoke is on the Water

If you've ever picked up a guitar, one of the first songs you're likely to teach yourself is Smoke on the Water. The simple structure of the chords is easy for a beginner to grasp.

There's also smoke on the water at the Dinah Shore Course this week from all of the fires raging across Southern California. The test this week at the ANA Inspiration is like navigating fire in the sky.

I'm leaning into favorites who've played well recently in the 104-player field this week, and a duo of long hitters who were paired together in the final group on a Saturday last season.

All odds are courtesy of MyBookie and can be found here.

Danielle Kang (+1100)

Kang had a slight drop off at the Walmart NW Arkansas Open, finishing well out of contention at T49. Hall of Famer Inbee Park passed her as the odds-on favorite because of this comparatively lackluster finish. However, this is a lot like saying Christian McCaffrey should be 2nd in your Fantasy League's power rankings because he had a single bad week. The fact that Kang isn't the favorite is very valuable.

Kang also broke through with a strategy to attack the course. She finished T6 last year after posting one bogey in her opening 54-holes. That's a level of consistency that Kang has made her brand in the restart, and should see her in the hunt come Sunday.

These are the best odds placed on Kang since the Drive On Championship when she won. I'm making the same size bet as then on her at 11 to 1.

Bet: 7.5 Units to win 82.5 Units.

Sei Young Kim (+1400)

Kim's game is like fire in the sky right now. She's got top 10's in nine of her last 10 starts and eight in a row. This is heavily discussed in the ANA Inspiration preview podcast with Ben Harpring. And yes, it deserves to be mentioned again. Kim's bringing the peak of her powers to a tournament that's going to require them to jump into Poppy's Pond at the end of the weekend.

She's the winningest player on the LPGA Tour without a major victory with 10 victories. That's not the ideal label to have, but it's not as if she's come up empty under the brightest of lights. She holds a top 10 finish in every major. Kim held the lead heading into Sunday in 2015 at the Dinah Shore Course and finished T4.

Bet: 5 units to win 70 units.

Nelly Korda (+1600)

The long-hitting American is trending in the right direction as she aims for her first career major. Korda has improved upon every start since the restart. Her finishes are T40, T38, T15, and T3 since the Drive On Championship in Ohio.

Her past performance in Rancho Mirage hasn't been comparable to her overall body of work. She's missed the cut twice, finished T42 in 2017, T13 in 2018, and T52 in 2019. If she can channel her approach in 2018 with a more refined game, the second highest-ranked American in the world should be in the mix in back to back events.

Bet: 5 units to win 80 units

Sung Hyun Park (+3500)

I saw this number and jumped out of my seat. This is the highest value selection I've made in the picks of the week so far. Park is No. 4 in the Rolex Rankings currently, was No. 1 in the world when this tournament happened last year and has two major titles to her resume. She's tied for 12th most likely to win this week, likely in large part due to this week being her first start since the restart. However, Sei Young Kim was one of the top four players in odds at her return at the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship.

Park holds a track record of success in Rancho Mirage as well. Outside of an uncharacteristic T52 last year, Park has finished in the top 15 in her three previous starts. Her best was a T6 in 2016.

Even the former world No. 1 missed multiple cuts in a row, it would be surprising to see her at these odds. This is strong value for one of the top players on the LPGA Tour, and she could reward handsomely this week.

Bet: 5 units to win 175 units

Yealimi Noh (+11000)

My tendency to love distance off the tee in my long-shot bets continues this week with Noh. She's been in contention on the LPGA Tour twice in her young professional career, holding the lead Saturday and paired up with the aforementioned Sung Hyun park at Thornberry Creek and in the final group Sunday alongside Hannah Green at the Cambia Portland Classic last year.

Her game is also on the rise since the restart, with the best finish of her rookie season at T15 at the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship two weeks ago. Like Korda, she's improved at every start since the restart.

Further, an LPGA rookie has won a major each of the past four seasons. Jeongeun Lee6 won the U.S. Women's Open in 2019, Georgia Hall claimed the then Ricoh Women's British Open in 2018, Sung Hyun Park emerged victorious at the U.S Women's Open in 2017, and In Gee Chun took home her second major championship at the Evian Championship in 2016. Noh is a likely candidate to continue the script for a fifth consecutive season.

Bet: 2.5 units to win 275 units

Do Not Bet- Charley Hull (+4500)

Hull tested positive for COVID-19 Tuesday AM. Hull holds a strong history of play at the Dinah Shore Course, featuring five top 15 finishes in seven starts and making every single cut. Unfortunately for the British woman, she's relegated to quarantine and asking for movie recommendations on Instagram from her followers.

Sign up at mybookie using the code bit.ly/mybookie-ybk for a 50% match of up to $1000 on your first deposit. Legal disclaimer: There’s no guarantee of return with any betting. All bets are taken at your own risk. Do not bet money you cannot afford to lose.